Risk & Decision-Making

Kahneman, Duke and Mauboussin on optimism bias and self-confidence

Part 2: Hot hands, overconfidence and group dynamics

May 7 •

Remembering Daniel Kahneman on risk, bias, and decision-making

Part 1: pre-mortems, self-serving bias, and changing your mind

Apr 30 •

Riskgaming against a world on fire: A manifesto, of sorts

Strategic exhilaration is the apotheosis of the Riskgaming experience.

Apr 28 •

Why immersion — and not realism — is critical for wargaming

With both ⁠Danny Crichton⁠ and ⁠Laurence Pevsner⁠ on vacation, we bring back our independent Riskgaming designer ⁠Ian Curtiss⁠ to host ⁠David Banks⁠, a…

Mar 26 •

The Unreasonable Middle

Our reasonable desire to compromise is a terrible first instinct

Mar 15 •

Luck Rules Our Lives So Why Don't We Teach More About It

Q&A with Nicholas Rush Smith on games and learning

Feb 19 •

and

Laurence Pevsner

Asteroids, xeno-kidneys, planes and H5N1

How do we respond to risks past, present and future?

Feb 8 •

Should you wait to have kids?

Improving embryo biotech could radically reduce disease for future generations

Jan 18 •

South Korea’s week from hell and the “what if” of tail risks

Dec 7, 2024 •

Pragmatic Powers

Whatever happened to the spirit of American pragmatism?

Nov 16, 2024 •

The Power of Games

Games let leaders practice making risky decisions

Oct 19, 2024 •

Democratizing WMD

AI will give everyone access to WMD.

Mar 23, 2024 •

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